Current Affairs Taiwan (CAT) 台灣時事 07.28.2019 Pilot 10

Current Affairs Taiwan (CAT) 台灣時事 07.28.2019 Pilot 10


all right welcome to current affairs
Taiwan this is Michael Turton and I’m Donovan Smith we’re happy to be here
again and with the news that we’re a week away from microphones now yes a
week or two yeah they’re on their way from the United States microphones audio
interface and that’s when we’ll be able to hopefully kick off the podcast after
that we’re gonna go for facelifts yes and stomach stapled alright we got here
alright in the KMT they finally have a candidate they do today and they had the
bowling balls and which of course means that I guess they’re looking for a
strike you know they picked the bowling balls man blue bowling balls was the big
theme I saw wow yeah blue balls blue balls
okay blue KMT balls held by a stage it was a sea full of men and looking like a
little elf was Hong Hsiu-chu I’m fighting for her she was so much fun but yeah she
was up there in the stage and you know it was the usual slate of suspects Ma Ying-jeou was very prominent I saw Wang Jin-ping he was there Wang Jin-ping was there
and who was not there Guo Tai-ming Terry Guo that’s right is he still in
Japan I don’t know he’s been keeping a very low profile
my theory is he’s waiting for Matsu tell him she was just kidding I don’t
know I guess he’s waiting for guidance from Matsu so maybe they’ll have to
change well I mean he can’t exactly come out and say now you know well Matsu he
told me just kidding yeah what was he gonna say you know he’s
gonna be asked about it for sure I’m interested to hear his answer yes Matsu
was teaching me humility or something yeah that’s a good yeah so
if he doesn’t run for president is he disobeying Matsu good question I mean so anyway Han Kuo-yu is now the KMT’s
formally and officially selected candidate yep all right
and he was saying he wanted a vice president with economic and diplomatic
experience yeah which leaves you do any who’s got
diplomatic experience that the natural would be Jason Hu but itself yeah his
health is is you know I how did will you I could easily see do
you know picking somebody unexpected that would be what he would want but
what do any I think that are trying to steer them to something a little bit
more in the party what if he picks Ma Ying-jeou do you think he’s got a kind of
imagination it would actually be a good be a very clever pick I’m not sure Ma Ying-jeou would go for that no Guo Tai-ming Terry Gou would be a good choice and I
don’t go for it yeah yeah I usually take it would be good for them then he can
say I thought Matsu said president but I didn’t hear the Vice yeah I thought the
“fu” was fortune but no it turned out it was lies anyway uh so anyway so
the KMT has begged him to return yeah which implies that he’s not in at the
moment no it’s very interested in show up for the event he’s been keeping out
of the news I haven’t seen him appearing anywhere
yeah just one or two articles yeah very very low-key I mean the last we heard he
was in Japan but is he still there I I don’t know oh well so I hear Tsai has
a bit of a smuggling problem this week well you know she was sneaking a smoke
or two yeah 9800 packs with it or something
well ten thousand they had it they up to up to 10 thousand carton cards sorry
carton but then they found out that’s been going on since was it 2014
something like man it’s like three hon thousand cartons over the years
involving people at China Airlines and the NSB it’s a problem well the news
lens had a nice piece today saying look this is the problem of the bureaucracy
this is not Tsai or Ma Ying-jeou this is the entrenched bureaucracy that the
president cannot get rid of it’s one of Taiwan’s biggest problems well she can
well yeah but it’s really difficult to fire a bureaucrat yeah but you can demote them and move them right in other words you can take away their
power yes so I mean there’s things that she can do and already there’s been was
you know at least one resignation some people can fire there’s gonna be
criminal charges against a bunch of people but you know when I find a little
bit alarming is these are the people are supposed to be keeping us safe hey
they’re the ones we’re supposed to capture spies from China but instead
they’re running a whole side scam we’re trying to keep the president’s safe and
smuggle cigarettes at the same time laughing but it’s not funny
no it’s really funny yeah and China Airlines of course supposed to try and
keep us in in flight which they’ve actually done you know in the nineties
they were they were alarming they’ve been pretty good since I mean I think
they want a management award a few years ago for one of the best run in Airlines
yeah yeah they’ve actually been doing pretty good job they turned it around
there yeah so in lighter news this week last
week Koo Guan ming formed the Formosa alliance of the independence people the
older ones who don’t like Tsai Ing-wen yep you might recall actually that it’s
not just that she doesn’t have the dangling male organ thing right when she
ran for when she first ran for party chairman who was her opponent mm-hmm so
there’s this personal thing going on as well yeah and he had old comments about
people in skirts shouldn’t be running the party and all that stuff yeah so
that was yeah he’s not so after the formosa alliance
we now have bada boom Chen Sui-bian that’s is now going to form a party as well
yes splits the crazy votes well they said that it wasn’t actually he’s not
actually in the party okay it’s not political activities right you can just
form party no he’s their spiritual got the exact
words but it’s something along these lines these they’re their spiritual
guide or you know let like likely dumb play with the TSU right so basically
this is like as far as I can tell this is like the TSU version four or
something like this or version five it’s something well the TSU is a mixed bag I
mean there’s yeah different kinds of people there but these are gonna be
greens way out there greens well I mean independence parties we got
the TSU and then we’ve got the Taiwan Alliance for most Alliance sorry we got
this new one the two the one country on each side of its yeah EP n equal equal
yeah I figure things that’s their slogan yeah it’s the name the party you think –
um then we have those three and then there was the free Taiwan party Oh God
this for a bird symbol right and then there’s that party this they’re calling
it the Taiwan State Building party now the one that keeps changing its name out of Kaohsiung some I think those those of young younger
that’s a younger crew really yeah they’re the the radical the Flunk Radicale
radical then they were… they keep changing their English name but I got
a pic I got photos no ji jin hui or something I got a photo of them at
the train station there’s some flower really oh there’s some flower they you
have some flower related and then of course there’s the NPP which I don’t
think it actually has independence as a formal I don’t think it’s on their
platforms I don’t think it needs to be and that’s me I think that was coming
back anyway yeah so this isn’t going to have
a great effect on the election but it’s a moment of humor
yes oh but but speaking of the Taiwan State Building party that we have some
people their spokesman is running against in Yen Kwang-hung here in Taichung
who is the son of Yen Ching-piao and so this party is running there’s their
spokesman mm-hmm the Taiwan State Building state states build state building party
their spokesman is running against Yen Kwang-hunghere in Taichung and
apparently the DPP is not gonna run a candidate is what they’re talking about
I don’t think it’s formal but Wow there’s talk right now the DPP will
stand down in that district to let this guy run that would be awesome
I don’t know because the the DPP almost beat yen once before in the by-election
action they did a pretty good job and then in the but then in the 2016 it when
the DPP crushed everybody they actually did worse yeah that one of those two was
a three-way it was a 2 to 1 2 to 1 win as I recall it wasn’t it wasn’t that bad
but it was still it was steep as a pretty suit yeah yeah all right well
that’s good news so yeah and still keeping quiet is Ko Wen-je
mayor of Taipei is he gonna be a candidate or not only he knows but he
sent a deadline what’s the deadline uh depending on the report either the
beginning of September or September 1st right and the paperwork has to be done
by the 17th of September so he needs time to as he stated he said look I need
to make the decision by then so that I can collect all the signatures that we
need and submit the paperwork by I believe the paperwork’s the 17th and
just a day two more days for the signatures but yeah something like that
so so now we know it’s the beginning of September we’re gonna find out basically
and that that pretty much includes go I think he has
learn timeline yeah a terry gou has to file by the 17th yeah that’s gonna be
harder for him to find signatures and Wang Jin-pyng if he’s gonna run as an
independent that would be interesting so we’re gonna see a big shake out in the
next few weeks yeah Ko Matsu please talk to Guo Buddha please
Talk to Wang Jin-pyng where’s the nearest Matsu temple go down and make a sacrifice well
there’s a big one there are very influenced um new polls out this week
this one is from the Taiwan public opinion foundation mm-hmm which you
might recall is run by a guy who also ran for DPP chairman and who lost and has
a chip on his shoulder and really does not like Tsai Ying-wen what is it with
pollsters and it wasn’t Ting Shou-chung a pollster too he was he was the guy
outside of the KMT polling the first KMT polling apparatus facility way
back in the 90s yeah and then he was that and then he also was the Gallup
poll except then Gallup withdrew all recognition from him so he would say
that he was the Gallup poll but I think he changed the Chinese character so it
sounds so it sounded like an old ones but they were not the same character yeah
like you know maybe yeah yeah polling company so so it’s always good to know
that if the people who have at polling companies also our politicians so you
know it’s all gonna be you know on the up-and-up and fair so even in this poll
they have tie up over Han Kuo-yu if it’s a two-way race size up by about five
points but if the other if anyone else enters then everything becomes wonky
boom yeah who knows who knows what’s gonna happen
yeah a lot of its gonna there was another poll I was sitting in I was
having breakfast at end and sadly for most of TV wasn’t I was standing around
the pole and I just caught the tail end of it one of the things that struck me
was housewives they had jiating jufu up there
and it was what was it 49:38 or something
for Han right for him probably there that demographic 45 to 65 yeah that’s
true yeah that’s the demographic that supports him yeah so is there any poll
where he’s got more than 40% of the people who are gonna vote his in the
primary in the primary yeah in the primary KMT yeah yeah okay but
pretty much every outside of that he’s been pretty much maxed out at the
low 30s yeah for the most part though thirties are anywhere somewhere below 40
yeah this poll he actually reached 40 but it’s not the poll of likely voters
no it’s just a poll yeah compared to ties lead over hand is decreased but
then who knows now keep in mind in the last election between some songs will
Soong Chu yu and Eric Chu and the two of them the pan blue candidates
got 43% I think it was 40 together 3 together in the last election right so
and how do i I don’t know if he appeals I mean some to you Jason —
I mean James songs support face I don’t know they might they may go for nowhere
else which to him yeah I’ll switch the hand I don’t see
why they second I can actually see a lot of Eric Chu supporters being kind of iffy
on yeah yeah no I mean Eric who is kind of a you know sensible mainstream sort
of KMT guy yeah yeah he’s being he wouldn’t be a bad pick for vice
president no he wouldn’t he wouldn’t be epic no and though there was some humor
here to Ko Wen-je the China times put out a poll saying that Ko Wen-je approval
would jump if he went into the race and cuz that they’re just trying to lure me
in with this poll that’s right so matter what one group which loves Han Kuo-yu and hates Guo Tai-ming/Terry Gou and Eric Chu said that the came to you would be doomed
doomed doomed if Terry Gou ran yeah and co responded to this he was asked to
respond and he said well it’s okay if the KMT is doomed as long as Taiwan is
not doing so speaking of doom how about our economy it’s doing all right it’s
not dude no no I almost of the GP forecasts are at about 2% for the year
plus or minus a little bit which is not bad it’s okay it’s okay but personal
incomes are going up faster than they have for a while
that’s good that’s good news not — not enough so that everybody feels it
it’s not like the 80s before the show we were talking about I mentioned it hey
Donovan check this out consumer confidence is up and Donovan said if you notice in
Taiwan consumer confidence numbers and this was as a slightly different one but
it was a similar sort of thing it was but if you actually look since I still
created it which was like 99 2000 2001 something like that is when they
actually set up the and they base it on the US run out of Michigan and
essentially if there’s a number in your consumer confidence it’s a hundred or
higher that indicates confidence in the economy and now the aggregate number
because there’s different categories or stocks yeah but and then anything under
a hundred is considered a negative negative consumer confidence never once
has the aggregate number for although I think there’s five different categories
never once has that number past 100 our consumers are pessimists or they’re
comparing it to the boom boom days yeah this Taiwanese the older companies were
spoiled by 8% growth we’re never gonna see that again
and everyone thinks that if Han Kuo-yu is magically elected so many people you
hear this and you read on facebook people will say well hands already done
great things for Kaohsiung you asked for a list and you get well fixing
potholes climbed a tree this week the other thing this week yeah so the
other thing this week actually Tsai Ing-wen sent this round on her Twitter was
that there’s been something like close to empty five hundred billion worth of
businesses pledging to return to Taiwan yet ninety eight company says just about
100 companies and just about 500 billion NT dollars in pledged now not all of
this is kind of materialized right of course yeah I just usually don’t
probably them the bulk of the companies will actually return if they can find
good land yeah that land problem is serious land and employment those are
the yeah if they can solve that and the government is working on they just
passed a new bill recently which makes it easier for land to have dual use I
believe it’s so that they thus owning I was about two three weeks ago which they
set up a mechanism basically whereby the existing factories that are on land
zoned for agriculture can stay there for a fair bit longer so now bear in mind
that you might think that these factories on land for agriculture are
like tiny little shops that are it’s like basically illegal and kind of
flimsy but no a lot of them are big companies listed on the stock market
yeah with huge foreign sales yeah I mean this is not a small problem this is an
endemic structural problem of Taiwan’s land policy yeah and the bulk of them
are right here in central Taiwan yeah Taichung being has the most and
something like 38,000 nationally 17 of which are here and Taichung alone Wow
yeah so so okay so you’ve all been following the Hong Kong protests yep
you’ve I’m sure you’ve heard about them and everyone a lot of people saw it
they’re saying hey look Hong Kong’s gonna guarantee ties gonna win
and all the sitting in Taiwan are going no so there was a nice article in by Lev
Nachman who’s a wonderful scholar and very interesting man I hope some time
you have a chance to meet him and Brian from new bloom yep out in the diplomat
I think it was right yeah claim you’re saying that well no
wait a second everybody out of the pool this is not gonna happen that way right
domestic issues are way more important and the content of the campaign is gonna
be way more important and of course if if what timing enters the election or Co
one gender is the election it’s gonna have a much bigger effect than Hong Kong
yes so Hong Kong is nice and we think that the PRC for giving us this gift but
uh I you know I it’s like I’ve read some articles and sort of they they wrote
this article as a reaction against these articles which basically we’re like
because of what’s going on in Hong Kong that means that time when it’s
guaranteed to win and then they kind of pour cold water on it I think they went
a little bit too far I actually do think that Hong Kong is is a factor I don’t
think I said faster it’s not the decisive no modest national sovereignty
issues have I think traditionally been a big factor of the presidential elections
here right the dumb play standing up to China I think that really could got him
the landslide in 96 Chen shui-bian um pans around Taiwan thing remember yeah
that was huge mobilizing people yeah but it’s different now it seems like that
was you know the dawn of our youth now moving into our cynical old age here no
one’s gonna be impressed by holding hands around Taiwan yeah but if this
Hong Kong thing goes on and worse things happen like god forbid the PLA coming in
and shooting people that would have a huge effect huge massive but the
protests themselves what’s going on now and I think it’s a few percentage points
for Tsai gonna be helpful it’s gonna be helpful
for the size yeah but if it’s a close election yeah it’s it’ll be decisive if
it’s a very very close election because it’s not gonna help Ko Wen-je and it’s
not gonna help Han Kuo-yu it’s gonna happen both of them yeah it will help
time when a little bit but how much really depends on how it plays out the
thing is is it you know they the protest may have died down by next January and
they’ll be largely forgotten right that could happen the PLA has marched in
there’s you know everyone yeah so at this point it’s too early to say it’s
potentially a big deal yeah well let’s see and transitional justice yes the MSB
files are being the National Security Bureau files gonna be released on
several important cases including Lin Yi-hsiung and Chen Wen-chen the Carnegie
shown so much time it was the Carnegie Mellon professor who returned to Taiwan
yeah man committed suicide yeah he decided to take flying lessons out of
the out of the window of a building yeah thank you and then the initial that case
very sad yeah family was murdered his wife kids mother doesn’t one of his kids
survived yeah she’s uh she’s married to dude even and she’s married to and now I
blanked his name never mind anyway okay to blank yeah yeah then they tried to
pin it on a foreigner for a while yeah that was Bruce Jacobs a bearded man that he’s like he wrote
about that in one of his books yeah I talked to him on ICRT the bearded
man they the bearded foreigner they bearded the owner yeah so yeah so I mean
that’s a big deal now here’s something that’s interesting as a couple of months
ago I mentioned before on the show this they were gonna start moving into things
like name issues and that stuff you know every month and that is like two three
months ago yeah and I was sitting there thinking oh that’s a bad idea that we’ve
always say election yeah that’s not a good idea
exactly so you know and so now all of a sudden they’re they’re focusing on
justice or you know these families and I think that will that’s a much more
popular tack now I have a sneaking suspicion that theres somebody higher up
in the party said you know you might want to tamp on the brakes a little bit
you know I like but they may get to the they may get to the Chiang kai-shek
memorial before the election but I I think if either tie or some for
political minded minders maybe it probably IFI had to guess they they said
look shift your focus there’s lots of things to do shift them to the things
that’s not going to cause everybody to have a meltdown right right and then we
can deal with it all that a second term yeah that would be so much better if
that took place after she got elected yeah I think that would be well I think
we’ve reached the end of our show today yeah just under 30 minutes so hey wait
does this is this body like make me the pudgy I know at least in my case my
punch but my body is pudgy so you know it’s been wonderful having you and I
will see you next week with more bad jokes and slightly more professional
presentation and hopefully set hopefully podcasts hopefully uh the equipment’s
coming on August 3rd we might not see it for two weeks oh okay you might not we
might not have it in the hand but it’s coming over from the US all right all
right thank you very much

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