The truth about global warming


. MARK: HELLO, AMERICA. I’M MARK LEVIN. THIS IS “LIFE, LIBERTY & LEVIN.” WELCOME.>>NICE TO SEE YOU.>>IT’S A GREAT HONOR TO SEE YOU, PATRICK MICHAELS. DOCTOR. EXPERT ON ALL THINGS CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT AS FAR AS I’M CONCERNED. LITTLE BIT OF YOUR BACKGROUND. DIRECTOR OF THE STUDY OF SCIENCE AT THE CATO INSTITUTE. YOU HOLD AN AB IN SM, YOU HOLD THOSE DEGREES IN BIOLOGY, SCIENCES AND PLANT ECOLOGY FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO. PRETTY GOOD SCHOOL. Ph.D. IN ECOLOGICAL CLIMATOLOGY FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN IN MADISON, 1979. PRESIDENT OF THE STATE CLIMATOLOGISTS, PROGRAM CHAIRMAN FOR THE CITY OF APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY OF THE AMERICAN METEORLOGICAL SOCIETY. SAY THAT FAST FIVE TIMES. RESEARCH PROFESSOR AT THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA FOR 30 YEARS, AND GIVING EXPANSIVE BACKGROUND THAT YOU HAVE, GIVING THAT TO THE PUBLIC SO THEY THAT YOU KNOW WHAT YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT. YOU’RE A CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR AND REVIEWER OF THE UNITED NATIONS INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL PANEL OF CLIMATE CHANGE. WE’VE HEARD IT ALL. WHAT’S GOING ON OUT THERE?>>WELL, SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF THE PLANET IS WARMER THAN IT WAS 100 YEARS AGO ABOUT. 9/10th OF A DEGREE CELSIUS. MARK: 9/10th DEGREE OF CELSIUS IS THAT A LOT?>>NO. COULD NOT HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY HUMAN BEINGS, WE HAVEN’T PUT ENOUGH CO2 IN THE AIR, AND ONE IN THE LATER PART OF THE 20th CENTURY THAT SLOWS DOWN OR DEPENDS WHOSE DATA YOU USE ONLY TO RESUME WITH THE BIG EL NINO THAT COVERED THE NEWS THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. THAT MEANS THAT PROBABLY HALF, MAYBE HALF OF THAT NINE-TENTHS OF THE DEGREE MIGHT BE CAUSED BY GREENHOUSE GASES. WHEN THE PLANET WARMED BEGINNING 1976, THE TEMPERATURE OF THE STRATOSPHERE STARTED TO STOP, THAT’S THE PREDICTION OF GREENHOUSE THEORY THAT’S NOT INTUITIVE. THE GREAT PHILOSOPHER OF SCIENCE CARL POPPER SAID IF YOU CAN MEET A DIFFICULT PREDICTION WITH YOUR THEORY, YOU CAN CONTINUE TO ENTERTAIN YOUR THEORY. SO THE THEORY IS RIGHT, BUT THE APPLICATION OF IT IS WRONG. IT IS NOWHERE NEAR AS WARM AS IT’S SUPPOSED TO BE. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE MAKING SYSTEMATIC, DRAMATIC ERRORS OVER THE ENTIRE TROPICS WHICH IS 40% OF THE EARTH, AND IT’S WHERE ALL OUR MOISTURE COMES FROM. ALMOST ALL OF IT. MARK: LET ME STOP YOU THERE. WHO DOES THESE COMPUTER MODELS?>>GOVERNMENTS. THERE ARE 32 FAMILIES OF COMPUTER MODELS THAT ARE USED BY THE UNITED NATIONS. EACH GOVERNMENT SPONSORED. AND ALL OF THEM ARE PREDICTING FAR, FAR TOO MUCH WARMING. THE DISPARITY BETWEEN WHAT’S BEEN PREDICTED TO HAPPEN, WHICH LOOKS LIKE SDMSHGS WHAT IS HAPPENING CONTINUES TO GROW. MARK: WE KNOW THAT FOR A FACT?>>YEAH, YOU COULD JUST LOOK AT THE WEATHER BALLOON TEMPERATURES. YOU CAN LOOK AT THE SATELLITE TEMPERATURES. YOU CAN LOOK AT SOMETHING CALLED THE REANALYSIS DATA. THEY BEHAVE IN CONCERT. THEY’RE SHOWING THE SAME THING, AND THE SAME THING IS A LOT DIFFERENT THAN THIS THING. HOWEVER, WE NEED TO CALL THE SPECIAL COUNSEL. MARK: SPECIAL COUNSEL?>>YES, BECAUSE ONE MODEL WORKS. YOU KNOW WHAT IT IS? IT’S THE RUSSIAN MODEL. MARK: LET ME GET THIS STRAIGHT. SO ALL THE GOVERNMENT MODELS ARE LIKE THIS?>>YEAH. MARK: THE RUSSIAN MODEL LIKE THIS.>>YEAH. THE RUSSIAN MODEL HAS THE LEAST WARMING IN IT. MARK: THE RUSSIAN MODEL HAS THE LEAST WARMING AND PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWS REALITY. WHAT’S BEEN TESTED OVER A FEW DECADES.>>YEAH, CORRECT. IF WE WERE RATIONAL ABOUT THIS, THINK ABOUT THE DAILY WEATHER FORECAST. YOU WATCH THE WEATHER CHANNEL, THEY GO THIS MODEL SAYS THAT, THAT MODEL SAYS THAT, WE THINK THIS ONE IS WORKING THE BEST, WE’RE GOING TO RELY ON THAT. WELL, FOR CLIMATE FORECAST SHOULD BE USING THE RUSSIAN MODEL BUT WE’RE NOT. WE USE THIS BIG SPATE OF ALL THE OTHER MODELS THAT HAVE THE WARMING THAT’S NOT OCCURRING. MARK: WHY ARE THE OTHER MODELS, 31 OF THEM, WRONG. AND WHY DO THEY ALL GO THE SAME DIRECTION, UP?>>BECAUSE, THEY WHAT ARE IS CALLED PARAMETERIZED. THEY’RE ALL PARAMETERIZED, CAN I TRANSLATE PARAMETERIZED IN ENGLISH? FUDGE. THEY DON’T GET THE RIGHT ANSWER, DON’T KNOW THE RIGHT ANSWER FOR CERTAIN PHENOMENA, SO WE ESSENTIALLY PUT IN CODE STEPS THAT GIVE US WHAT WE THINK IT SHOULD BE. AND SYSTEMATIC ERROR THAT WAS MADE WAS THE MODELS WERE TUNED, AS IT SAID. TUNED. TUNED TO SIMULATE THE WARMING OF THE EARLY 20th CENTURY. BEGAN IN 1910, ENDED IN 1945, ABOUT .45 DEGREES CELSIUS. MARK, THAT COULD NOT HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY CARBON DIOXIDE. MARK: BECAUSE THERE WASN’T ENOUGH.>>WE HAD TO PUT ENOUGH IN THAT THE BACKGROUND CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION IS 280 MILLION PARTS PER MILLION. WHEN THE FIRST WARMING STARTED, 208 PARTS PER MILLION. IF IT IS THAT SENSITIVE TO 18PPM CHANGE IN CO2 WE WOULDN’T BE TALKING ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW AND WE’D BE SWEATING BULLETS.>>SO WHAT YOU’RE SAYING IS MAN MADE CARBON DIOXIDE THE LAST CENTURY COULD NOT HAVE PRODUCED –>>EARLY 20th CENTURY. MARK: COULD NOT HAVE PRODUCED THIS HEAT. SO WHAT DID? DO WE KNOW?>>NO. AND THREE MOST IMPORTANT WORDS IN LIFE MAY NOT BE I LOVE YOU. IT MAY BE I DON’T KNOW. I DON’T THINK ANYBODY REALLY KNOWS WHAT KICKED OFF THAT WARMING. THERE’S LOTS OF THEORIES. ONE IS THAT IT WAS THE FINAL ESCAPE FROM A GOLD PERIOD, MULTICENTURY PERIOD KNOWN AS THE LITTLE ICE AGE. THAT’S THE PLAUSIBILITY, WHY DID IT HAPPEN THEN. BUT WE DON’T HAVE A GOOD EXPLANATION FOR THAT. BECAUSE WE FORCED THE COMPUTER MODELS TO SAY, HUMAN INFLUENCE, CO2 AND OTHER STUFF. WE MADE THE MODELS TOO SENSITIVE, AND SO THAT’S WHY WHEN YOU GET TO THE LATE 20th CENTURY, ALL OF A SUDDEN THEY’RE WARMING UP LIKE CRAZY AND THE REALITY IS DOWN HERE. IT WAS GUARANTEED TO HAPPEN. THIS WAS REVEALED IN SCIENCE MAGAZINE IN LATE 2016, AND THERE WAS A PAPER PUBLISHED BY A FRENCH CLIMATE MODELER CALLED THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CLIMATE MODEL TUNING. AND IN IT, HE SPEAKS OF PARAMETERIZING. WE COULD SAY FUDGING, THE MODELS TO GIVE, HIS WORDS, AN ANTICIPATED ACCEPTABLE RANGE OF RESULTS. SO IT’S THE SCIENTIST, NOT THE SCIENCE THAT’S DETERMINING HOW MUCH IT’S GOING TO WARM. LOT OF PEOPLE DON’T KNOW THIS, BUT IT HAPPENS TO BE TRUE, AND YOU KNOW, WE COULD SPECULATE AS TO WHY THAT PAPER WAS PUBLISHED RIGHT BEFORE THE 2016 ELECTION? I WOULDN’T WANT TO IMPUTE CAUSATION, BUT GEE — MARK: BUT I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT CAUSATION.>>SURE. MARK: HAVE YOU 31 GOVERNMENTS.>>THE 31 DIFFERENT MODELS.>>31 DIFFERENT MODELS. MULTIPLE GOVERNMENTS.>>RIGHT. MARK: FUDGING THE NUMBERS?>>NOT FUDGING THEM PARAMETERIZING. MARK: YOU USED THE WORD FUDGING. DOES OUR EPA DO THAT? DOES NASA DO THAT? WHO DOES THAT FOR US?>>GOOD QUESTION, MARK, BECAUSE THE EPA WAS TOLD BY THE SUPREME COURT IN 2007 THAT IF IT FOUND THE CARBON DIOXIDE ENDANGERED HUMAN HEALTH AND WELFARE, THAT IT HAD THE POWER TO REGULATE IT UNDER THE CLEAN AIR ACT. MARK: THIS IS THE MASSACHUSETTS.>>THE EPA. WELL, THEY PRODUCED AN ENDANGERMENT FINDING, 2009, AND THE ENDANGERMENT FINDING FOR PROSPECTIVE CLIMATE IS 100%, I DIDN’T SAY 90%. I SAID 100% BASED ON THOSE MODELS. SO IF YOU CAN DEMONSTRATE THAT THOSE MODELS SYSTEMATICALLY ARE NOT WORKING, YOU CAN TAKE DOWN THE ENDANGERMENT FINDING, AND THAT WOULD BE THE BASIS FOR ALL THOSE POLICIES THAT CAME OUT OF THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION. MARK: WHICH WOULD MEAN YOU DON’T GET TO REGULATE –>>ABSOLUTELY. MARK: — CARBON DIOXIDE.>>ABSOLUTELY, THE ENDANGERMENT FINDING IS THE HEART OF THE MATTER. TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA HOW GUNG HO THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION WAS ON THIS ISSUE. IF YOU LISTEN TO HIS FIRST INAUGURAL SPEECH, JANUARY 20, 2009, IT’S SECOND SUBSTANTIVE PARAGRAPH OF THE SPEECH IS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING, AFTER HEALTH CARE. 90 DAYS AFTER HE FINISHED THAT SPEECH, HIS EPA PRODUCED A PRELIMINARY FINDING OF ENDANGERMENT FROM CARBON DIOXIDE. THEY WERE WORKING ON THIS BEFORE HE WAS PRESIDENT, BUREAUCRATS CAN’T WORK THAT FAST, AND THEN THE FINAL FINDING WAS MADE IN DECEMBER FOR THE CLIMATE CONFERENCE IN COPENHAGEN THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO PRODUCE ANOTHER GLOBAL WARMING. MARK: SO YOU’RE TELLING US THAT WE HAVE A MASSIVE BIT OF PUBLIC POLICY THAT HAS ENORMOUS EFFECT ON SOCIETY THAT’S BUILT ON — I’LL USE MY WORDS, PHONY MODELS.>>BUILT ON A HOUSE OF CARDS. MODELS REALLY DON’T WORK. IF I COULD REALLY BE ARCANE, I COULD EXPLAIN THE MECHANISM AS TO WHY THEY DON’T WORK. MARK: AS LONG AS I UNDERSTAND IT.>>THE MODELS SYSTEMATICALLY PREDICT THAT AS YOU GO UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE TROPICS WHICH ARE 40% OF THE EARTH THAT THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD RISE DRAMATICALLY AS YOU GO FURTHER UP IN THE ATMOSPHERE. SO WHEN YOU GET TO THE LEVEL OF THE JET STREAM, THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE PREDICTING SEVEN TIMES. I DIDN’T SAY SEVEN-TENTHS OF A DEGREE, I SAID SEVEN TIMES MORE WARMING THAN BEING OBSERVED. WHY AM I BORING YOU WITH THAT? THE VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF TEMPERATURE DETERMINES PRECIPITATION, AND GUESS WHAT? ALMOST ALL THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THAT WE HAVE AROUND US TODAY IN THE HUMID WASHINGTON, D.C., THAT COMES FROM THE TROPICS. SO IF YOU GET THAT VERTICAL MOTION WRONG, DOWN THERE, YOU GET ALL THE SUBSEQUENT VARIABLES WRONG. IT’S A FANTASTIC SYSTEMATIC ERROR, AND AGAIN, THAT ALONG WITH THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RATHER THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT’S BEING OBSERVED, THAT’S SUFFICIENT TO THE CHEMICAL FINDING. MARK: TO THE AVERAGE PEDESTRIAN LIKE ME, IF YOU GET THAT WRONG, WHAT DOES IT MEAN? YOU GET THE WEATHER MODELS WRONG?>>THE SUBSEQUENT WEATHER WRONG. THAT’S WHY, IF YOU LOOK AT ALL THESE FAMILIES OF MODELS, THEY PREDICT RADICALLY DIFFERENT CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION FROM MODEL TO MODEL. WELL, PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY GOT THE PRECIPITATION INITIALIZATION OUT OF TROPICS WRONG. PRECIPITATION IS IMPORTANT. I OFFER YOU WILMINGTON, NORTH CAROLINA, IF AN EXAMPLE PRECIPITATION IS IMPORTANT COMING FROM THE TROPICS, GET THAT WRONG AND YOU GET THAT THING.>>IS WEATHER GETTING WORSE?>>NO. I LOVE THAT QUESTION BECAUSE WHAT YOU REALLY WANT TO LOOK AT. ROGER PILKE, JR., AT THE UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO DOES. THIS YES, THERE’S MORE DAMAGE FROM WEATHER BECAUSE THERE’S MORE STUFF AND PEOPLE AND PROPERTY IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. SO WHAT YOU REALLY WANT TO LOOK AT ARE WEATHER DAMAGES AS A PERCENT OF GDP. WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT THAT WAY, THERE’S NOTHING WHATSOEVER. I’M SURE HURRICANES ARE GETTING WORSE. I HEARD THAT ON EVERY LEGACY NETWORK DURING FLORENCE AND HARVEY AND ALL THAT STUFF. WELL, FACT OF THE MATTER IS, THERE’S A GUY BY THE NAME OF RYAN MAUI, A HOT SHOT YOUNG TROPICAL METEOROLOGIST, AND A SCHOLAR AT THE CATO INSTITUTE. HE TRACKS THE ENERGY IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONES. SINCE WE GOT GLOBAL RECORDS THAT BEGAN IN 1970, AND YOU WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THAT INTEGRATED ENERGY AND GLOBAL WARMING AFTER ALL, IT’S ONLY LOGICAL. VICE PRESIDENT GORE SAYS THAT MUST BE THE CASE. IT’S NOT. THERE’S NO RELATIONSHIP WHATSOEVER BETWEEN THE ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF THE EARTH. IT’S JUST NOT THERE. NOW, WHAT — WAIT A MINUTE, J DOES OUR GOVERNMENT SAY THIS? THEY SAID IT IN THEIR LAST REPORT CALLED GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES. THEY SAID, OH, THERE’S BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HURRICANE POWER IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 1970 TO 2009 OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. 1980 TO 2009. WAIT A MINUTE. WHY DID YOU STOP IN 2009. IT’S 2014 REPORT. BECAUSE IF YOU TAKE THE DATA AFTER 2009, THE INCREASE GOES BACK TO WHERE IT WAS. WHY DID YOU START IN THE MID 1970s, BECAUSE WE HAVE RECORDS THAT ARE REALLY GOOD BACK TO 1920. IF YOU LOOK AT 1920 TO 1950, YOU SEE AN INCREASE THAT IS EXACTLY THE SAME AS THE ONE THAT OCCURS. MARK: SO THE INFORMATION THEY’RE PROVIDING US –>>IS SKEWED. IT’S SKEWED. THEY’RE CHERRY PICKING. MARK: HERE WE RELY ON THE CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THEY ARE HYPERPOLITICAL. TONIGHT GET BACK TO THAT AS SOON AS WE RETURN.>>>DON’T FORGET, LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, YOU CAN WATCH LEVIN TV ALMOST EVERY WEEK NIGHT BY

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